کاربرد روش تحلیل عاملی در شناسایی بافت‌های فرسوده شهری

موضوع نارسایی شاخص­های سه گانه مطرح شده توسط شورایعالی شهرسازی و معماری ایران در راستای شناسایی بافت­های فرسوده شهری، همواره مورد انتقاد محافل مختلف قرار گرفته است. بر این اساس، مقاله حاضر بر آن است تا به بازخوانی شناسایی بافت­های فرسوده شهری از طریق ارائه مدلی مناسب، و کاربست آن در بلوک­های شهری محله هدف مطالعه پرداخته و عوامل و متغیرهای اصلی فرسودگی شهری را کشف نماید. روش تحقیق در این مقاله تلفیقی از روش­های فراتحلیل و استفاده از متون معتبر جهانی در ارتباط با شاخص­های فرسودگی از یک سو و روش تحلیل داده­های ثانویه مربوط به بلوک­های شهری در محیط نرم افزارهای تحلیل آماری و سیستم­های اطلاعات جغرافیایی از سوی دیگر است. یافته­های این مطالعه­ نشان می­دهد که به ترتیب، عوامل اصلی شناسایی بافت­های فرسوده در محله مورد مطالعه را، آسیب­پذیری سازه­ای، فرسودگی اقتصادی محرومیت و فقر شهری تشکیل می­دهند که در این میان دو عامل اول، حدود 50 درصد فرسودگی و سه عامل در کنار هم حدود 70 درصد فرسودگی شهری را تبیین می­کنند. همچنین تبیین ارتباط بین شاخص‌های معرفی شده در این مطالعه با شاخص­های سه گانه شورایعالی شهرسازی و معماری ایران نیز نشان داد که شاخص­های قیمت زمین، نرخ نوسازی، تراکم جمعیتی و خانوار در واحد مسکونی به ترتیب، ارتباط بیشتری را با شاخص­های مربوطه دارند.

In recent years, the old urban fabrics identification has become a challenging issue in urban planning society in Iran. The insufficiency of triple indices which had been introduced by the High Council on Urban Planning and Architecture has been criticized by experts several times. In this paper we reconsider the existing urban fabrics identification method and introduce a suitable model and apply it in the urban blocks of an urban neighborhood, Karim Abad in Tehran, thus finalizing the principal factors and variables in identification of the urban decayed fabrics. Research method in this paper is a combination of meta-analysis and using reliable literatures about decayed urban fabrics indicators on the one hand and a data analysis method of secondary data of urban blocks from statistics analysis and GIS (Geographic information system) software on the other hand. Consequently, to reach the specific aims of the study, first, general decayed urban fabrics indicators were extracted from the related literature. Then, by combining some of these indcators and considering the specific conditions of the study area and also cheking for the applicability of adopting factor analysis method, nine urban decayed fabrics indicators were used in twenty four blocks of study area. The results of the present study show that the main factors of urban decayed fabrics identification in the study area are respectively, structural vulnerability, economic deterioration, social exclusion and urban poverty. Among these factors, the first and the second ones explain approximately 50 percent of urban decayed fabrics, and commulatively all the three extracted factors explain about 70 percent of urban decayed fabrics. Moreover, the explanation of the relationship between factors introduced in this study and those which had been introduced by the High Council on Urban Planning and Architecture, demonstrates that land cost, renewal rate, and population density are the indicators which respectively have the most connection with the previously introduced indices for identification of the decayed urban fabrics.Based on the studies of Lee and Bourne, which was mentioned in the theoretical framework of this study, application of new economic and social indicators in the process of decayed urban fabric identification is deemed necessary. Therefore, according to expert’s emphases and due to serious criticisms of the indicators used for the identification of decayed urban fabrics in Iran, in this paper, a new approach for identification of decayed urban fabrics with the application of social and economic indicators in the sample community is developed. Our findings show that the applied 9 soci-economic as well as physical indicators in 24 urban blocks of the case study, show that besides the criteria’s adopted by the High Council on Urban Planning and Architecture, the most important factors for identification of decayed urban fabrics are respectively, structural vulnerability, economic deterioration, social exclusion and urban poverty. Moreover, the explanation of the relation between factors introduced in this study and those which had been introduced by the High Council on Urban Planning and Architecture show that land cost, renewal rate, and population density, are the indicators which respectively have the most connection with the previously introduced indicators

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